Leatherhead Matters

Gordon’s big initiative for 2008 is NHS health screening.

Meanwhile, the Financial Times says:

“the UK continues to have the nastiest embedded inflation problem of any developed economy. Judging by index-linked gilt prices, the market expects inflation to average 3.45 per cent over the next 10 years. This is down from a peak of 3.83 per cent but remains a full percentage point higher than any other G7 economy.

In sum, growth is weakening but inflation expectations remain high, the currency is overvalued and the money market is severely troubled.”

Gordon & his Chancellor are desperate to avoid the big R. Recession would finally kill off New Labour’s reputation for economic competence. So they are quietly letting inflation rise rather than increase interest rates. The RPI is now at 4.3% and may rise further.

Read more on the way Brown spin’s the inflation figures HERE

Over the next 6 months, the extraordinary rise in oil & gas prices during 2007 will feed through to our domestic gas & electricity bills. We are going to see wallet busting increases!

Any incumbent government would probably start to publicly put pressure on the utility companies. Talking tough is all they can do. However, I suspect our current government will be rather muted on energy prices. Why might that be?

Well a certain Mr  Andrew Brown has just been promoted to the position of Director of Communications at EDF Energy, one of our largest domestic energy suppliers. He just happens to be the brother of Gordon Brown our Prime Minister. No doubt Gordon is extremely well informed about the need for energy price increases. He has concluded there is no benefit in extending the Christmas pantomime season with the Brown brothers publicly debating whether the scheduled energy price increases are too high (Oh no they’re not says Andrew, Oh yes they are, says Gordon). That’s why you won’t be hearing much from our Government on your utility bills over the next few months.

So Gordon’s new, squeaky clean, spin free Government launches its first new policy initiative of the year. The big, new idea is NHS health checkups. Sounds sensible….prevention is better than cure etc.

But wait a minute, what’s this small print about GPs initially screening their records for the high risk patients and calling them in for a check up? It’s not currently clear how this screening is going to work but, I assume it will be based on a combination of demographics and personal medical records.

I would hope that where a GPs records show an individual to be at high risk let’s say of a heart attack or, stroke, it will be because the patient:

1. Has been diagnosed as at risk and is already prescribed a combination of lifestyle change (diet exercise etc) and drugs or, ultimately surgery. So the new initiative is not going to be much help to this category.
2. As in 1 but, has never bothered to return to the surgery for follow up, check up or, prescription. So is a new letter from the NHS going to galvanise this category into action? Maybe, maybe not.
3. Has registered with the GP practice but, has never attended or, subjected themselves to assessment. Presumably this is the main target audience for the new screening initiative, based on demographics. This group will get an NHS letter inviting them in for a chat, a check up & assessment with their GP.

So the big new initiative effectively boils down to the definition of an “at risk” population, purely from demographic data and a letter suggesting they visit their GP. Since most GP practices are overloaded already, I wonder how long it will take to get the “at risk” population checked out and told they are overweight, on a poor diet, sedentary etc?

It’s an initiative doomed to disappoint because it’s already been oversold. There is already an expectation of equivalence with private medical screening, full body scans, full analysis of blood & urine etc. However, the initiative boils down to a letter from the local NHS Trust and even more pressure on GP practices who don’t seem to have been informed about Gordon’s new big idea.

Better get ready for even longer waiting lists to see your GP in 2008